The largest beneficiary of a hegemonic India in the Indo-pacific is .............. China
Understanding the current situation between India and China Part 15
I want to mention here that the US would love India to play the role of the offshore balancer ie playing a hegemonic role in the seas of the Indo-pacific. The US needs India to play this role for the simple reason that due to the war in Ukraine, the US is now forced to concentrate most of her resources in that European theater.
This was the background reason that the US has decided to name India as the upcoming great power. In this way, by playing to the vanity of the Indian intelligentsia the US have tried to achieve two important aims. One, ensuring that the Indian leadership at least publicly distances itself from Russia and minimizes its commercial contacts with Russia and two, ensuring that US is not without resources when it comes to balancing China in the Indo-pacific region.
Looking at initial reactions by the Indian government so far, we can observe two interesting things. The Indian decision to postpone the annual India-Russia summit and the recent decision to hold the annual Indo-US joint military exercises near the disputed Uttaranchal border between India and China, seems to favor the US.
It naturally suits the US to ensure India plays a larger role in the Indo-pacific for two reasons. One, it ensures a steady supply of US-made weapons systems to the Indian military and two, it ensures a growing distance between India and Russia as well important regional allies such as Iran and the gulf countries.
India, presents the best option for the US in the sense that on one hand it is a big consumer of the Western weapons systems and on the other hand it seeks acceptance by the Western ruling elite to be accommodated as a great power for future. For this specific role, India is the best option that none of the other prominent Western allies such as Australia, Israel, South Korea or Japan can play at this moment of history.
Interestingly, alike US, China too would be happy if India plays the role of US as the naval balancer in the Indo-pacific. For one, China would be happy that India with two live land borders would be deploying the specious military resources in the naval arena.
This actually allows China to ensure India gets entangled in naval responsibilities which allows China (or for that matter Pakistan in future) to nibble around territories in the disputed himalayan regions such as Arunachal, Ladakh and Kashmir in future. Plus, with India distracted by naval duties, China can afford to plan for a possible future naval blockade and eventual capture of the Taiwan islands.
Also, China will be happy that any entrenchment of relations between India and the US in the Ind0-pacific will automatically create distances between India and its erstwhile allies such as Russia and Iran which China(and Pakistan) can only play for its own usefulness.
To conclude, India playing the US desginated role of naval balancing China in the Indo-pacific region will likely be more beneficial for China, once it happens eventually.